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Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions

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• Why do our headaches persist after taking a one-cent aspirin but disappear when we take a 50-cent aspirin?
• Why does recalling the Ten Commandments reduce our tendency to lie, even when we couldn't possibly be caught?
• Why do we splurge on a lavish meal but cut coupons to save twenty-five cents on a can of soup?
• Why do we go back for second helpings at the unlimited buffet, even when our stomachs are already full?
• And how did we ever start spending $4.15 on a cup of coffee when, just a few years ago, we used to pay less than a dollar?

When it comes to making decisions in our lives, we think we're in control. We think we're making smart, rational choices. But are we?

In a series of illuminating, often surprising experiments, MIT behavioral economist Dan Ariely refutes the common assumption that we behave in fundamentally rational ways. Blending everyday experience with groundbreaking research, Ariely explains how expectations, emotions, social norms, and other invisible, seemingly illogical forces skew our reasoning abilities.

Not only do we make astonishingly simple mistakes every day, but we make the same types of mistakes, Ariely discovers. We consistently overpay, underestimate, and procrastinate. We fail to understand the profound effects of our emotions on what we want, and we overvalue what we already own. Yet these misguided behaviors are neither random nor senseless. They're systematic and predictable—making us predictably irrational.

From drinking coffee to losing weight, from buying a car to choosing a romantic partner, Ariely explains how to break through these systematic patterns of thought to make better decisions. Predictably Irrational will change the way we interact with the world—one small decision at a time.

Terrible. -
I have read hundreds of books about human behavior, and this auther describs I have read hundreds of books about human behavior, and this author describes the worst theories for unscientific studies. Any university that lets its tenured professes ply this hogwash should be ashamed at the very least to have their name on this book. The "Studies" in this book are done on a very specific group; college students in a class instructed by the author.

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Empirical investigations into the unconscious ways humans make seemingly rational decisions. -
The crux of Dan Ariely's book "Predictably Irrational" is that humans believe they are rational creatures, yet often base supposedly rational decision making on a host of unconscious, often irrational, criteria. What makes this book riveting is the fact that Ariely then goes on to show you how he proves his arguments empirically - using experiments whose ingenious simplicity and perception will astound you. The implications of Ariely's experiments are profound: much of classical economics is wrong; public policy based on incorrect assumptions of human decision making are wrong; your own self perception that you are in full conscious control of yourself is wrong. Ariely is aware of these implications and makes them explicit at the end of each chapter. This makes "Predictably Irrational" function on a host of levels - individual psychology; group dynamics/sociology; public policy, and ultimately, culture and anthropology.

Ariely specifically addresses 12 specific issues over the 12 chapters in "Predictably Irrational". They constitute his work so far - and are meant to introduce you to a new science. They are not meant to constitute a complete analysis of the phenomena in any way. The 12 are:
1) price relativity - people subconsciously base their sense of price value on initial anchors formed irrationally - and then estimate relative values off that. This flies in the face of classical economics' assumption of a sense of absolute value.
2) supply and demand is a fallacy - examples of how product pricing is initially emotionally created are provided - including the case of Tahitian black pearls
3) how the promise of "free" distorts our estimation of value. This is the best chapter in the book and has a lovely section on how he tricks trick or treating kids into accepting less candy based on the allure of a "free" item in trade.
4) the difference between social and economic obligations and relationships (how you'll work harder for a friend than someone who is paying you - and how corporations try to be your friend but how the social aspect is fragile and easily lost when economics comes into things.
5) how arousal changes your decision making - and how it's impossible for individuals to predict how emotional heat will make them change their priorities. This area has a ton of valuable implications for why people don't save money, use condoms, or diet successfully even though the goals seem so valuable. The heat of the moment leads people to think differently. The empirical experiments deployed here are fascinating and icky (they involve college boys answering Kinsey-type questions during arousal - very weird).
6) procrastination
7) how owning something leads to over valuing it.
8) how people hate reducing their options - even if failing to commit to a particular course costs them far more than losing some options.
9) expectation - you get what you expect (often no matter what the reality is).
10) how price affects how effective placebos are.
11) honesty and cheating - a fabulous investigation into the exact mechanics how how/why people cheat/steal.
12) how people feel freer to cheat/steal if the items in question are not cash (even if they are tokens only one step removed from cash). Huge implications for business.

Part of the fascination isn't just that Ariely has investigated and written about these cool topics; it's that he also explains his insight into these issues (it relates to his recovery from serious injuries) and liberally peppers the narrative with descriptions of the collaborative process of social science and with personal anecdotes. Throughout the whole thing Ariely comes off as such a decent and perceptive human being. What a great pleasure this book is on such a variety of levels.

Fascinating study about how we view choices -
I can't rave enough about this book. From cover to cover, I enjoyed reading about how people view choices and incentives and what kinds of forces exist that distract us from making sound decisions. It truly is a fascinating study into human psychology and its intersection with economics.

I personally disagree with the author's broader interpretation of his studies regarding economic policy and the need for intervention to save people from making poor choices. I argue that even if a person makes an objectively irrational choice, as long as that person perceives the decision to have made him or herself better off, it's ultimately a good choice. Again, objectively, this may not always be the case, but from a subjective standpoint it works.

Cause for concern -
Predictably Irrational, a book by Daniel Ariely, is an offering from the late capitalist mindset, which presents its thesis with mindboggling simplicity: "If humans had internalised no social values whatsoever, except for those of capitalist materialism, how might we expect them to behave?

The answer -- wait for it -- is obvious, as it is the title of the book that Ariely has written.

Ariely finds these tokens of irrationality everywhere. He finds them in the fact that college males' values shift towards denial of the need to concern themselves with contraception when they are aroused (as compared to the values that they emote when they are not turned on.) He finds this irrationality in the disinclination of his wife to enjoy an epidural-free childbirth, despite having stuck her hand into some icy water for a long time, in preparation for confronting the labour pain. (As a skydive instructor once said to me, when I suggested to him that I could learn to skydive by working my way up, jumping from a 10 metre board, "don't bother. The two sensations are entirely different!") He finds irrationality in that some people are easily tricked into buying products or services they really don't need, if they think they're getting something extra, in the bargain, for nothing. However, Ariely holds, if they are getting a discount, they feel like they're not really getting something worth cherishing. They are thus "predictably irrational".

The examples he has chosen might well be considered peculiar, no less the conclusions he draws from his experiments, about "human nature". Ariely doesn't see fit to tell us, for instance, why it is that a woman might choose to go without an epidural during childbirth, in the first place. This we are presumed to already know. Perhaps we can emotionally attune ourselves to this poor woman's motivations by using the universalism that is somehow waiting readily within our "human nature" for just such interpretative tasks.

Ariely finds that people prefer the middle of the range value in terms of cheating (they will steal a little, but not much) and when it comes to buying objects for sale (they will choose the goods that are priced between the highly priced object and the low costing object). When it comes to cheating in tests, people will, however, tend to cheat less if they are forced to think about the "ten commandments" just prior to the testing. However, they may not know what the contents of the ten commandments are, Ariely says. What is happening, in effect, is that an alternative value system from that of the hegemonic one -- capitalism -- is simply latching on to minds and taking hold of them. To introduce the bible into human interactions might be a good thing, thinks Ariely. (At least we can be reassured,on the basis of all that Ariely has been trying to tell us, that such an introduction would be merely irrational -- and hence, presumably, inconsequential -- just like everything else in a system that is organised on the basis of capital.

People -- the author seems to be trying to tell us -- are irrational things. This goes for their morality and everything about them. We might try to tweak things here or there to make them seem more moral on the surface, however genuine ethics, as well as genuine education and thinking about things in a way that doesn't change with every shift of the emotion, is impossible.

I think that Ariely should have admitted that he is speaking only of what he has known, and his overview of how the denial of thinking is taken as "human nature" under capitalism gives us a great deal to feel concerned about.

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Well written, can't put it down! -
One of the best books I've read. Easy to relate to whether you're a marketing professional, or just the average consumer. The patterns are true and the book does a great job illustrating the research and coming up with lots of great real world examples.

I pulled off the expectations stunt with a friend right after reading the book. He came over and wanted some scotch on the rocks. I poured it, handed to him, and he asked what it was. Told him it was 21-year Glenlivet (does that even exist?). He drank nearly the whole thing commenting on it's smoothness, taste, etc. Then I went into talking to him about this book, especially the expectations chapter. Tee'd it up perfectly when I told him he had actually just been drinking J&B Scotch from the 1.5 liter bottle. All of a sudden he wasn't so thrilled with the taste. Made some comments about how it was off a litte. Sure!

Anyhow, great book. I plan on reading again and mapping out how it plays out in my life. at the very least I will use it to convince my wife that the entry level Porsche Cayenne is perfectly fine for us and she doesn't need to get the Cayenne S or GTS.

Shalom!